U.S. gamers have experienced a tumultuous week in the news cycle, starting with the much-anticipated full reveal of the Nintendo Switch 2, only to be followed by widespread disappointment over its $450 price tag and the $80 cost for Mario Kart Tour. The roller coaster continued as Nintendo announced a delay in pre-orders to evaluate the impact of the Trump Administration's sudden and sweeping tariffs on global trade.
We've previously discussed the reasons behind the Nintendo Switch 2's high initial cost and the potential effects of these tariffs on the gaming industry at large. However, the burning question on everyone's mind now is: what will Nintendo do next? Will the Nintendo Switch 2's price increase when pre-orders finally open?
Typically, when faced with questions about the future of video games, I consult a panel of expert industry analysts. While they can't predict the future with certainty, they usually provide a consensus view based on solid evidence and data. I've already done this twice this week. Yet, for the first time since I began seeking their insights, every analyst I spoke to was stumped by the current situation. Their responses were filled with caveats, highlighting the unprecedented chaos and unpredictability of the moment. No one can confidently predict the actions of Nintendo, the Trump administration, or any other stakeholders in the near future.
With this significant disclaimer in mind, here's a summary of the analysts' perspectives:
Sky-High Switch
The panel was divided on whether Nintendo would raise prices. Dr. Serkan Toto, CEO of Kantan Games, initially believed it was too late for a price hike after the initial announcement, but the delay changed his perspective. He now thinks Nintendo has no choice but to increase prices for the system, games, and accessories due to the tariffs. "It is very difficult to predict, but Nintendo will likely take a few days to run simulations and then announce hikes," Toto said. "Would you be surprised now to see Switch 2 hit US$500 for the base model? I wouldn't."
Mat Piscatella, senior analyst at Circana, also leaned towards price increases across the board, though he emphasized the unpredictability of the situation. He noted that the tariffs were much higher than anticipated, forcing businesses with international supply chains to reevaluate their pricing. "Every reasonable and responsible business that relies on international supply chains will be reevaluating its US consumer pricing at this point. They have to," Piscatella stated.
Manu Rosier, director of market analysis at Newzoo, predicts that hardware prices will rise due to the tariffs, but believes software prices might be less affected thanks to the growing dominance of digital distribution. "If a 20% tariff—or any substantial increase—were to be introduced, it’s unlikely that companies like Nintendo would absorb the additional cost by cutting into their margins," Rosier explained.
Holding the Line
On the other hand, some analysts believe Nintendo will try to maintain the announced price. Joost van Dreunen, NYU Stern professor and author of SuperJoost Playlist, acknowledges the possibility of a price increase but thinks Nintendo will do everything possible to avoid it. He believes the $449.99 price already accounts for potential economic challenges. "Given the first Trump administration's impact, Nintendo, like other manufacturers, has since restructured its supply chain to mitigate such geopolitical risks," van Dreunen said.
Piers Harding-Rolls, games researcher at Ampere Analysis, agrees, warning that raising prices further could lead to consumer backlash. "The company is now in between a rock and a hard place, having already announced the launch price," he noted. "Nintendo will not want to change the price having announced it, but I think everything is on the table now."
Living in Unhinged Times
Rhys Elliott, games analyst at Alinea Analytics, predicts higher prices for both Nintendo hardware and software due to the tariffs. He points out that Nintendo's strategy of offering cheaper digital editions in certain markets might be a way to encourage digital purchases. "It seems the lower prices in other markets were to nudge Switch 2 buyers to digital," Elliott said.
Elliott also painted a grim picture of the broader impact of the tariffs on the games industry, aligning with warnings from the Entertainment Software Association. He believes that these tariffs will lead to a "weaker, poorer nation" with consumers ultimately bearing the cost. "These extreme tariffs will also be bad for consumers in the US but are positive for the US administration’s populist façade," Elliott remarked.
Nintendo Switch 2 System and Accessories Gallery
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